Unruly Futures
It’s undeniable that AI and humanoid robots will be some of the most disruptive and consequential technologies of this coming century. They really have the potential to change everything for humanity going forward, and are essentially our only hope against pervasive and massive global depopulation, which could very easily lead to a full societal collapse in the coming centuries (after Africa is done with their growth peak).
In any case, they’re happening, and apparently fairly soon. But at the same time, we believe that they are in an absolutely bubbleicious state at the moment.
The recent wave of valuation announcements, are frankly very hard to rationalize into future returns.
Some people speculate that these are the most essential form of actual momentum investing where the price doesn’t matter as you’ll surely find someone else investing at a higher valuation later on on which to unload your positions.
Some point to the never before seen vertical growth of OpenAI and the potential infinite valuation upside that comes from owning the winner in the AI space.
On our end, we also see the tit-for-tat of the large corporates and some very large VCs, the ridiculous competitive pressure on all sides (including the Chinese side), and the massive rapidly depreciating capex investments.
We also see a lot of SPVs promising access to a whole number of these companies for your average HNI or even retail investor, capitalizing on the zeitgeist.
As early stage investors, it’s not our job to figure out exactly where this will go or when, but let’s say that if we could sell it all as soon as possible, we would do it in a heartbeat.
Not withstanding our full belief on this being the absolute future.
If the math breaks a16z has launched a colossal $20B fund, which will need a $640B exit value to return 3x.
OpenAI Fund seeded both Cursor and Harvey. Insane on-paper returns for now.
The World's RL Gym A decentralized approach to reinforcement learning by creating a diverse set of RL environments, "The Gym," to generate high-quality reasoning data for LLMs. It outlines a network architecture, including "The Refinery" for decentralized fine-tuning.
Towards accurate differential diagnosis with large language models: The study introduces the Articulate Medical Intelligence Explorer (AMIE), an LLM optimized for diagnostic reasoning, which enhances differential diagnosis performance when assisting clinicians with 302 challenging real-world medical cases.
MecAgent Fascinating AI CAD Software Copilot MecAgent to carry out low-value CAD tasks.
A report by TEMASEK on AI for material discovery A bit of the usual, but still a good overview and vibe check on the market expectations.
DolphinGemma Google and marine researchers are diving deep into dolphin communication with an AI model that not only decodes their complex sounds but also aims to establish a two-way interaction system, potentially bridging the gap between humans and dolphins.
The NYT eventually ended up talking about China’s export ban on rare minerals from April 4th - something on why legacy media are suffering in the world of back-to-back-to-back tariffs and turnarounds. As the arms race keeps accelerating, and countries feel the pain of a world with centralized resources, we’ve collected a few things:
The Trump administration is drafting an executive order to stockpile deep-sea polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean seabed, rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, to reduce U.S. reliance on China's dominant battery mineral and rare earth supply chains. This initiative aims to create a strategic reserve to ensure access to critical minerals in case of conflicts or import restrictions.
Founders Fund announces General Matter. The fact that Russia and China have by far the largest Uranium enrichment capabilities is not ideal for the US (which do have conversion facilities though). General Matter will enrich uranium for the US.
Lip-Bu Tan’s investments in China The new Intel CEO has invested over $200 million in hundreds of Chinese tech firms, including at least eight with ties to the People's Liberation Army, through Walden International and Hong Kong-based entities, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest given Intel's role in U.S. defense contracts. Reuters identified Tan's control over 40 Chinese companies and minority stakes in over 600, with some investments alongside Chinese state-owned enterprises, though no current direct investments in U.S. Treasury-blacklisted firms were found.
Tyler Cowen or that friend who did social studies: Incredibly delusional take by Tyler Cowen on why China is not beating the West in AI. The argument runs as follows: AI “thinks like Americans”, hence the West has an advantage, China will struggle to catch up. No joke. An argument also echoed in this other article by Cowen - recommend reading the comments.
How a dollar crisis would unfold Until recently, dedollarisation was seen as more of an econ-fi thing. But more and more are exploring the scenario where trust in US politics and role keeps eroding.
The next move for Beijing Nouriel Roubini on how China can respond to Trump’s tariffs
And some bite-sized readings:
Sleep is essential, but why? Researchers are investigating the biological necessity of sleep, which occupies over 20 years of a typical human life, yet its precise physiological mechanisms and evolutionary purposes remain largely unclear. The article highlights ongoing efforts to elucidate sleep's role in brain function and organismal health using advanced neuroscience techniques.
Have We Been Thinking About A.D.H.D. All Wrong? Harrowing read on the NYT on why medicating a couple of generations of kids on the basis of vague symptomatology and even more uncertain science maybe is not a good idea.
Remedy Scientific Inc. has developed an automated remediation system for PFAS-contaminated soil, achieving a 1000x scale-up in treatment process within a year. Coming out of stealth with an $11m round, the company aims to rapidly repurpose contaminated urban land, addressing barriers to housing and manufacturing development.
General Catalyst leads a $258M Series F in Mainspring Energy: the company develops a linear generator that converts various fuels into clean electricity with high efficiency and low emissions, addressing challenges in grid reliability and decarbonization. The technology's fuel flexibility and rapid scalability make it a critical solution for integrating renewable energy and supporting industrial power needs.
Other things we liked
Founders Fund closes a massively oversubscribed $4.6B growth fund
From a16z Crpyto: Stablecoins: Payments without intermediaries
Let us know what you think of this format, and if you have anything else we should read!
Over 200 subscribers
